It has often been said that statistics can be made to prove any hypothesis. It all depends on how they are presented. It also depends on which set of statistics you look at. Every complex issue is multidimensional and if you focus on only one of those dimensions, you can get a view that is diametrically opposed to what you would see if you focused on a different dimension.
Small Businesses Don't Know if They are Coming or Going
Today I noticed two news stories which illustrate this principle. Inc magazine had an article, Small-Business Hiring Picks Up, dated August 5, 2008 which stated:
Small-business employment surged in July at the sharpest rate this year, even as larger companies continued to cut jobs to offset weaker earnings, national payroll data shows.
Then I came across an August 15th article, Small-business owners' outlook bleak, at CNN Money, which offered the following analysis:
Soft sales, job cuts and weak capital-spending plans have owners hunkering down for continuing economic pain.
Who's right? Are small businesses hiring more even though they are experiencing "soft sales, job cuts, and weak capital-spending?" It doesn't seem likely. I think this is simply a demonstration of journalistic license and semantic selectivity. Which poll you look at and how you define "small business" could have a dramatic influence on whether small businesses are hiring or cutting jobs.
Employers Can't Find Workers, Graduates Can't Find Work
Here's another example. On August 1st, Reuters ran a story, Workers less willing to move or switch jobs, in which it was observed:
Workers have in recent months become less willing to move, and more of them are considering how long it takes to get to work when deciding whether to accept a position, say executives in the staffing industry.
The trend, if it becomes widespread, could mean U.S. employers will have a harder time filling positions -- especially those requiring specialized skills -- raising their labor costs.
And I found this story, Graduates having hard time getting foot in the door, in the August 7 issue of the Nashua Telegraph which proclaimed:
During robust economic times, college students in undergraduate and graduate school programs would easily get multiple offers. As the economy teeters on the edge of recession, college graduates this year face a tough job market, leaving many without work in their fields or doing jobs that people without college degrees can do, career center officials said.
Hmmmmm... If US employers are having such a hard time filling positions, as the Reuters article purports, then why don't they look at hiring recent college grads who, according to the Nashua Telegraph, are having a hard time finding employment? That seems to be a no-brainer. I would be happy to serve as a middleman between the unfortunate employers and the hapless job seekers for a small fee.
Ahhh... if it were only that simple.
The lesson here, is that journalists include only the information which supports their thesis. We would be wise to take a skeptic's critical view at everything we read. An important factor in analyzing an issue, it seems, is the viewpoint held prior to doing the research. Selectively choosing one dimension of the full picture to support a foregone conclusion is common, and journalists (and bloggers) are very good at it.
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. -- attributed to Benjamin Disraeli by Mark Twain
Small Businesses Don't Know if They are Coming or Going
Today I noticed two news stories which illustrate this principle. Inc magazine had an article, Small-Business Hiring Picks Up, dated August 5, 2008 which stated:
Small-business employment surged in July at the sharpest rate this year, even as larger companies continued to cut jobs to offset weaker earnings, national payroll data shows.
Then I came across an August 15th article, Small-business owners' outlook bleak, at CNN Money, which offered the following analysis:
Soft sales, job cuts and weak capital-spending plans have owners hunkering down for continuing economic pain.
Who's right? Are small businesses hiring more even though they are experiencing "soft sales, job cuts, and weak capital-spending?" It doesn't seem likely. I think this is simply a demonstration of journalistic license and semantic selectivity. Which poll you look at and how you define "small business" could have a dramatic influence on whether small businesses are hiring or cutting jobs.
Employers Can't Find Workers, Graduates Can't Find Work
Here's another example. On August 1st, Reuters ran a story, Workers less willing to move or switch jobs, in which it was observed:
Workers have in recent months become less willing to move, and more of them are considering how long it takes to get to work when deciding whether to accept a position, say executives in the staffing industry.
The trend, if it becomes widespread, could mean U.S. employers will have a harder time filling positions -- especially those requiring specialized skills -- raising their labor costs.
And I found this story, Graduates having hard time getting foot in the door, in the August 7 issue of the Nashua Telegraph which proclaimed:
During robust economic times, college students in undergraduate and graduate school programs would easily get multiple offers. As the economy teeters on the edge of recession, college graduates this year face a tough job market, leaving many without work in their fields or doing jobs that people without college degrees can do, career center officials said.
Hmmmmm... If US employers are having such a hard time filling positions, as the Reuters article purports, then why don't they look at hiring recent college grads who, according to the Nashua Telegraph, are having a hard time finding employment? That seems to be a no-brainer. I would be happy to serve as a middleman between the unfortunate employers and the hapless job seekers for a small fee.
Ahhh... if it were only that simple.
The lesson here, is that journalists include only the information which supports their thesis. We would be wise to take a skeptic's critical view at everything we read. An important factor in analyzing an issue, it seems, is the viewpoint held prior to doing the research. Selectively choosing one dimension of the full picture to support a foregone conclusion is common, and journalists (and bloggers) are very good at it.
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. -- attributed to Benjamin Disraeli by Mark Twain
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